2025 Year End Review: Pivots and Projections
2025 Year End Review: Pivots and Projections
It is the end of 2025 and the world has changed in detrimental ways. The old order has ramped up its efforts to survive. Its unwillingness to share power in an emergent multipolar world has often resulted in disasterous geopolitical moves destroying its the current systems of control. At the close of 2025 we wish to look back and ahead to determine what the world may experience in the year ahead. We will look at three major factors and the corresponding events that we believe will be influential in 2026.
Global Finance and Production to Shift As Rich Nations Deteriorate
It is the postion of this publication that global finance will conrinue to shift to the East and the Global South. The West, through punitive tariffs, sanctions and siezures has continued to undermine its fidelity as a world leader in secure finance. Additionally, subsequent 2025 trade wars have made turning a profit much more difficult in Western enclaves.
Nations around the world will have to rethink their production and financial strategies as opportunity shifts. A shift in production will be necessary along with methods of remuneration as currencies swaps are extrapolated over wider transactions, cross border payments and join ventures. It may be that the Turco-Circassian (Caucasian) Kingdoms of the Arabian peninsula may hope to fill the vacuum. Particularly Saudi Arabia may seek to fill that void and reclaim the Mamluk Hejaz Kingdom's former glory, which had even colonized and pushed out the Cushitic people of Kemet (Egypt) in the 12th Century. In fact, it has been reported in a 2024 MenaFin Article that these states in the Middle East are working frantically to become the world fintech capital. However, this will ve fascinating to witneds, as much of the MENA region's wealth is tied up in Western investments.
Interest rates have started to fall as Western states seek to bring back a critical level of liquidity to save what is left of its economies. The initial goal was to limit purchasing power to halve the profits of Sino producers and by extension break the Chinese economy.
High interest rates were also a way for the
Rules Based Order to reign in Global South and newer EU states, to retard their growth and by extension independence. Too much growth and self direction in the Global South often translates into too much sovereignty for the Anglo-Saxon West.
Without dependency in some fashion the West may be obsolesced by larger more naturally endowed or productive states of the Global South, Eastern Europe and Eurasia. In a future, where the West is not partucularly important to world affairs, trade or finance, access to crucial resources, geostrategic locations, energy and even trade could become dicey.
It must be noted that those financial shifts toward the global south and Eurasia will be met with countermeasures. Particularly in attempts to scuttle deals and pivot resources through puppet leader deals. However, the rapid advance of rich nation fiscal decay is almost unstoppable.
After nearly a century in business, Volkswagen has shuttered in Germany. The Auto behemoth will have to find more cost efficient environs ro operate with access to inexpensive fuel and labor. And for many, that place is China. The deindustrializing German economy has reached a €1 trillion euro debt milestone in the hope of revitakizing the state , DW News reports. A truly unbelievable moment for the nation once considered the most fiscally sound, efficient and prudent member in the Eurozone.
Finance must shift because the means of production is no longer situated in rich states and these states are no longer necessary to provide wealth management or executive services. Nations once chose the West because it was believed their investments would be safe and could be safely leveraged to grow. That sentiment is now gone, as even Switzerland has abandoned its fiscal and geopolitical neutrality.
Various nations have repatriated their gold from US and British coffers since the confiscation of Russian assets. Just recently, Tass News reports, Moscow has decided to fight back against the asset seizure and filed a lawsuit against EuroClear over its $230 billion frozen assets which are being summarily turned over to Kiev.
In fact, even the United States has been unable to maintain its fiscal integrity. In May 2025 Moody's downgraded the US credit score and in October of the same year, the European credit agency, Scope, also downgraded the US from AA to AA- according to an October 2025 Reuters report. In 2025 the US economy grew only 1 percent and that growth was in the American AI industry, which is quickly becoming a market bubble.
Beyond the erratic American stock market the real economy is lagging badly. US Bankruptcies have skyrocketed, with insolvencies rising more than 100 percent since 2022, according to S&P Data compiled by TKL. The recent BLS report also noted major job losses that tamp down fiscal expectations. Finance security, of necessity, must be housed elsewhere, or there will be a major wealth wipeout.
The US has tried to implement the controversial Mar-A-Lago Accords with the hope of bringing the US economy low enough to thwart the Sino economy and slow down global growth so that the West could compete internationally. And while that plan, however diabolical could have worked, it missed a key component: competition and production.
The West does not have the capacity to compete, nor the foresight to build that capacity before launching a full scale attack. The fiscal strategy may be pivoted to the EU as the Union recedes from non-European military entanglements. In December, Korea's JoongAng Daily reports that previous plans for EV factories have been scrapped in favor of a majority stake buyout by Ford Motor company, where South Korea's company will retain ownership of 30 percent of the jount venture.
Now the West must retrench and refocus. And in that interim nations everywhere are moving quickly to find an alternative. A reordering is happening that will likely result in the emergence of a new world financial capitol.
Encirclement and Critical Allies
2025 was a year of virulent trade tactics and unforseen clashes. The quest for hegemony will likely pivot to Asia where anti-multilateral actors hope to disrupt the growing momentum and skew focus from growth to squabbles over old antagonisms.
Additionally, partnerships will be tested as the Rules Based Order will seek to harness nations and leadership to slow down its own existential foes. The Old Order deeply believes in encirclement, because it is a tactic that works well against it. Encirclement is the Old Order's deepest fear and is why it is deeply committed to divide and rule strategies over any others.
The 2025 US Trade War demonstrated a masterclass in encirclement when the US was suddenly cut off from critical minerals and grain exports. It was essentially encircled and had no other options. It immediatley capitulated, even tracking down the Sino-President in Asia to strike a high-level deal between the two leaders.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely the West will abandon this strategy unless they are forced. Latin America will be an important region where the US will seek to reestablish cooperations by force, finance or faux friendship. The deployment of US troops may be less likeky as already there are Western PMCs on the ground in Latin America. It is more likely that these PMCs will be bacjed up militarily by the US MIC through the Navy. In the Western hemisphere the US may use force and intrigue to slow down momentem and independence.
Canada and Greenland will remain key, as Canada cannot afford to fully and publically align with US anti-Sino sentiments. Rather Ottowa will have to provide mining, rare earths, energy and joint ventures in support. Canada is among the top sending nations whose mines are energing all over Africa, Asia and Latin America. Business America news recently reported that Canada and the US have finalized financial amendements on a $2.23 Billion DOE loan for the Thacker Pass Project in Nevada, which aims to be the world's largest lithiun mine for EV batteries. Canada and other Western partners are working to ensure sustainability so that the USMIC cannot be capped.
Likely, partners in Asia and Africa will be tapped to help the Rules Based Order act via proxies rather than direct engagement. For example, the US resumed its provocations in the Taiwan Strait by selling major military grade weapons to Taipei. China responded with sanctions against several US military contractors, including Northrop Gruman, acording to a CGTN report. The sale was a violation of the One-China Policy and 3 Communiques underscoring Chinese sovereignity.
While sovereignity and partnerships will be tested in 2026, it is more than likely states will find ways to continue to build and circumvent obstacles implemented by the Rules based Order. It may be that 2026 sees a moment when states solidify forces to repell rogue actors and shut down the capacities of beligerents states bent on destroying the emergent multipolar world.
Technology, science and international diplomatic and business institutions and innovations will continue to evolve worldwide. Like currency swaps and gold hedges, new methods to evade and overrride measures aimed at slowing down the global economy will likely emerge. The Democratic Republic of the Congo's shipment of traceable cobalt underscores the development of science and technologies capable of securing natural resources, AfricaNews reported. The development will likely cut out problematic middle-man actors such as mercenary armies and client regimes that pillage on behalf of dubious extra-state actors. Ethical mining will evolve and negotiations will be forced into executive spaces rather than at the barrel of a gun in jungles and villages in the Global South nations.
West to Modify Strategies, Reposition Europe In Effort to Maintain Hegemony
Western stated have been quickly mobilizing to reassert a thin dominance in the Global South. The emergent influence of Eastern States has rattled the West in its capacity to strongarm compliant global south nations for natural resources, access, and geopolitical access.
Despite the ReArm Europe program, the European Union is withdrawing militarily from African and West Asian enclaves and merely offering support in Latin America and Asia. Particularly, France which has fallen out of favor with many African states. Paris, like many EU members, is also facing critical socioeconomic and systemic pressures threatening the nation and its place in the Eurozone.
Its parliamentary recently suspended its controversial pension legislation to fend off another change of government and no confidence vote, LeMonde News reports. The EU has primarily transferred its offensive capcities in Africa and the Middle East to the United States and to a smaller degree the United Kingdom and Turkiye, as its proxy in Eurasia.
Germany has also followed France along with most major European states to focus their military might against the growing prowess of the Russian Federation. This does not mean that Europe has completely abandoned its attempts to maintain hegemony in Africa or the Middle East, rather it has determined to target those regions from a financial and soft power position of leverage. It has already inked several pacts with African and Latin American states and put forth interest in solidifying a Palestinian state in the Middle East.
This transfer was already in the works during the Biden Administration where faux coup d'etats in Gabon, Guinea, West and South Asia permitted Paris and EU partners to appear to bow out militarily to local wills. This allowed the US to come in as an alternative to French and European domination with the MIC in tow. It is not clear whether the recent coup d'etat attempt in Benin was an organic anti-neocolonial event by the oppressed Beninese, according to a December 2025 Benin Business Journal. The goal principally for EU/US co-ops in Africa and the Middle East is to stop the spread of Russian military and Sino economic growth and leverage in the region. Major success by any state is often reckoned as a threat to the receding Western hegemonic model.
The plan includes a resurgence in Africa and West Asia via AFRICOM. The US replaced its military general in charge of Africom, which had long kept the operation in a holding pattern by maintaining existing strongholds. However, his replacement hails from the BlackWater PMC and Right Wing camps of thought in the US that pivoted from protectionism to Global South expansion via a re-colonization model. It may explain US revisiting South Sudan, threatening the current leadership there, AllAfrica News reported.
There have also been deep ambitions by the US military industrial complex deep state in West Asia. The pivot under right-center leadership has looked toward fortifying the Wolfowitz Doctrine. That strategem was briefly abandoned from about 2013-2024. It was during this time that the Mamluk and West Asian kingdoms of the Arabian peninsula pivoted East with threats of allying with China, BRICS and abandoning the petrodollar. However, Saudi Arabia, like Argentina, rejected the BRICS membership and pivoted sharply West. In the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia and others from the peninsula promised over $1 trillion USD in investments in the American eonomy, CNN News reported.
However, it has again pivoted East as it has begun to fall out of favor in Africa over its interventions in the Sahel and Sudan. In the past the West has relied on key players in West Asia to maneuver problematic African states with money, religion or slave army violence. In a rare move, the largely Western-funded African Union sanctioned the UAE dispite a powerful spending spree and charm offensive on the continent, AfricaNews reports.
Hotspots in Africa have seen fighters from Syria, Yemen as well as Ukrainian mercenaries and trainers supporting jihadists in Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Nigeria, DRC, the Sahel and beyond. Hiiraan Online reported Mogadishu aprehended Turco-Circassian "Arab" fighters and trainers in its troubled regions in October 2025. The kingdoms of the Peninsula also maintain concern over Sino and Russian support for Iran (Persia), their ancient nemesis and masters who once controlled the region including the Levant in opposition to the Ottoman Empire (Turkiye). Iran continues maintain a critical influence in Syria, Yemen, Palestine and other states in West Asia.
Recently, the US AFRICOM partnered with Nigeria to bomb regions in the Sokoto Caliphate and other sites in Northern Nigeria, Al_Jazeera reported. The strike was executed on December 25th in partnership with the Nigerian government led by its confirmed CIA-Asset president. The attack was bizarre because it struck targets that had not been associated with the Islamic State. This makes sense, however, as US Senator(s) and the Pakistani Foreign Minister have admitted the United States and the West uses IS and Al-Queda as proxies, Sky News reported in a 2025.
Both IS, its affiliates and Al-Queda have re-emerged in Somalia where the leadership is under strong pressure by the US-led West to balkanize. According to an AllAfrica News report, there was a cyber attack against its airport and the IATA, began recognizing Somiland as a separate destination and recognizing Somaliland as a seperate national destination. Somalia's leadership had agreed to work with the US, Italy and Turkiye for security and support. Uet, Somalia is under attack and pressure by its purported allies. Unfortunately, like the Sahel states, insecurity had increased after its partnership with Western militaries.
The G7 has determined that European states may better exert diplomatic and economic controls, rather than wide ranging geostrategic military operations. Just recently, the US partnered with a host of African states from Rwanda and Nigeria to South Africa and Kenya for medical initiatives, CGTN News reported.
Essentially, the Rules Based Order is moving away from its weaknesses and hoping to harness its perceived strengths to retain geopolitical control. It cannot afford to lose critical minerals in a trade war that crucial for the military industrial complex. Targetting chips, trade and mineral was an obvious mistake for the US as it undermined its already fragile economy and military industrial complex. The US will likely pivot to militarism against the global south and forge flimsy trade deals that primarily focus on resource extraction with ambitions to encircle China via proxies. The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, reported by the Associated Press, provides a salient example of this phenomenon. Conversely, Europe will likely shift to target China trade and use its military fortifications to threaten Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
Conclusion
GeoChange World Project would like to thank our readers for a productive 2025. We hope your endeavors were buttressed by the information and analysis in the articles presented. It is also our hope that you were able to learn more about various regions worldwide and implement measures that helped you to succeed in business, diplomacy, investment and local affairs. During the weeks of November 15 to December 14, 2025 events beyond our purview prevented analysis reports and we regret that we could not support those weeks. Additionally the project was erroneously flagged for spam at Quora.com, as certain actors have sought to prevent the sharing information and analysis provided. Nevertheless, we are committed to be your ally in information, strategy and analysis. Geochange World Project wishes you good fortune, success and productivity in the New Year.
May you have a prosperous New Year 2026!
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